Let’s go back to the Real Madrid vs Atlético odds. The methods to remove the margin we have included in the true odds calculator are: Which one the bookies are using is impossible to know. However, there are several methods to calculate the “true odds”, or “remove the margin”. → Nobody, except the bookies and their providers, knows exactly how they apply the margin to the true odds.

Which are the “true probabilities”, and their inverse, the “true odds”, according to the bookie’s odds? That means that Pinnacle’s estimation of the probability of Madrid to win is lower than 0.478, the probability of a draw is lower than 0.29 and the probability of Atletico to win is lower than 0.265. → As the bookies apply this margin to the odds resulting in lower odds than the inverse of the probability, you need to win a little bit more than the probabilities estimated by the bookies if you want to obtain profit.īut, which are the probabilities estimated by the odds?įollowing the previous example, the bookie’s estimation of the probabilities are always slightly lower than the inverse of the odds.

If the bet amounts of each outcome are proportional to the inverse of the odds, the bookies win a “commission” of (1-0.9781)=0.0215=2.15% of the total amount bet. This way, the bookies pay less than they receive through the bets of the users. It is called the vig (or vigorish), juice, margin or overround. Atlético de Madrid to win = 1/ 3.77= 0.265īut, wait, if we sum 0.478+0.279+0.265=1.022 > 1, and I remember that the sum of all the possible outcomes of a match should be equal to 1….In the following football match between “Real Madrid” and “Atlético de Madrid” (odds taken saturday 11th, 17:16): We can approximate the probabilities with the formula: To explain the usefulness of this calculator and why it is a MUST in any value betting strategy, let’s start at the beginning.

The lower odds, the higher probability, and vice versa.

As you know, (and if not, you should), the betting odds are related to the probabilities of each outcome.

5 card draw odds calculator